•Start by imagining one or two different outcomes for your topic in 2045.
•OUTCOME 1: an increasingly polynodal system – we are likely to see diffusion of power away from traditional superpowers - lots of different centres of power (natural resources concentrated in Asia eg China/Russia, financial centres likely to remain London/NY). What specific specialisations can we imagine? > information strengths, military hardware development, innovation/tech – startup hubs, econ development – manufacturing, IT, different societies (the infra delivers this). Some countries may choose to drop out and sustain themselves – amid a rise of national identities and ‘we can do it ourselves’ -to be more self-sustaining.
•OUTCOME 2: power struggle around information – who can hold and steal information – intelligence theft. Information as the key edge both for private sector and governments – getting the right intel from other countries – either willingly or unwillingly. Inform as the key form of power. Tech specialisations can lead to very intensive competition – eg China firewall, gated community of social media – divided world – a divided information world in which untruth/disinformation thrives.
•What this might mean globally?
•“the era of everything” – both a polarised world but also a world where people are coming together – intensification of trends of 2020 – some people are trying really hard to build bridges - that may be intensified by the fact that .other half of society/political leaders are doing the opposite. People don’t necessarily align with what their government does – this plays into the question, WHO DOES FOREIGN POLICY/NATIONAL STRATEGY?
•Specialised system – would it prompt increase faultlines for conflict ('clash of specialisations') or does it mean there is more requirement/need for all countries to collaborate/cooperate.
•Increased risk of conflict – if specialisation doesn’t lead to cooperation. But war would be different – eg cyberwar.
•Think about the threats and opportunities it might create for the UK.
•UK benefits from specialisation – UK history (strengths in education [key global competitive advantages in education], skills and training/human capacity training.
•OPPORTUNITIES: UK needs to innovate a new system – “a new UN system” – example of everyone coming together. Become a broker across other countries. UK must have a say on the way these issues are mediated. It COULD if it chooses play that role of mediating across the system – it’s quite unique for the UK, because such strong relationships with so many countries and continents.
•THREATS:
•Risk of playing a passive role – of becoming a rule taker.
•UK’s alliance choices are much more difficult.
•Access to good quality food – US relationship . Reliant on other countries from food supplies etc.
•Reputational threat from eg points based system – specialisation could be less manual labour opportunities – 4th Industrial Revolution – what kinds of opportunities does the UK provide? How does this affect its soft power? Reputation of UK will suffer compared to its current reputation among migrants/diasporas/ those who benefit from remittances etc.
•Finally, what would be the key "so-what" for the UK and how might the UK respond?
•Be active as a broker
•Not let our relationships degrade any further
•Not become too passive, a rule taker. E.g. demonstrate our value in UNSC.
•Be clear about our strategic partners and rank them – prioritisation of soft power, resources etc and crucially separating those out [setting clear priorities]
•Cultivate very careful relationships with indiv member states (European partners)
•Be bold with ‘minilateralism’ – creating new ad hoc groupings, along lines of Macron's ‘pax Mediterranea’. Ad hoc groupings for specific things.
•Focus on protecting our position economically – make selves more attractive (avoid slipping to 10th largest economy).
•If UK wants to become a broker it needs to create a new values system that other countries are ready to promote – cultural relativism if we are to engage with a range of countries with eg a different take on human rights – doing the cultural work to get other countries to be on board - . CHOICE to be made here.