Session 2:
Where is the persona, how does her world look in 2050?
- An completed her high school education in 2025.
- An might get minimal opportunities to work and generate income.
- An's family is deeply affected by climate change and is beginning to struggle with farm income.
- Extreme weather events have increased globally, and also in Vietnam, including large scale flooding.
- High pressure on the mass movement of people due to the unprecedented climate change
- An's higher education prospects are becoming grim as she now must consider labor-intensive jobs to fill in the income gap created by large-scale flooding.
- The Asian Development Bank is increasing resources to flood hit parts of Vietnam, and An's family receive some support to either rebuild or relocate.
- An moves to the East for greener pastures, i.e. China, where the labour market is quite favourable.
- However, thanks to the community-oriented culture fostered in An's family and neighbors, An gets the financial support she needs to secure higher education abroad (hmm not sure where yet).
- By 2050, An has received higher education in _______ (also unsure!) and is now working in a city in the East (cities are more resilient to climate change in 2050, but struggle with over population).
- By 2050, there might be a high influx of people in China, hence the government reviews policies on immigration, affecting An's life as well.
- Using her degree in Environmental Engineering, An builds on her work experience in the East and decides to partner with universities in Vietnam to organize an Env. Eng. department with applied requirements to foster a new wave of the field altogether.
Further considerations:
- Sustainable Development Goals
- Long term impacts of Covid-19?
- Everyone is currently experiencing the Covid-19 (example of globalism)
- Community based societys have been better off during covid rather than more individual (eg US)
- Sustainability can come from unexpected circumstances
___________________________
Part 2, An's Biography:
What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?
2020- 2030
- An's life has been focused on embracing technology, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Travel restrictions in the early 2020s has impacted global travel,
- The emphasis on Technology based learning due to Covid-19, meant that An had the opportunity to undertake a certificate offered at her school in a tech based programme (Eg. networking / Coding) An took up the offer.
- An finished High-School, graduating in 2023
- She used to live in a smaller town, to Hanoi for University. Her family is supporting her migration to the city, and she is also working part time to support herself in Hanoi.
- An is a family based person, and she visits her family every major holiday.
- Climate Change action: COP 26 goes well, there is global co-operation and in the mid 2020-s Hanoi is undergoing a change to make the city more Green, with help from ADB, and regional groups.
- She's graduated University in a Science Degree, and won a place on the PhD programme at Tsinghua University, Beijing (best for Engineering in China).
2030- 2040
- An begins the decade studying her PhD in Beijing, she is focusing on Environmental Engineering, inspired by her own impact due to climate change in her home town.
- While studying her PhD, she still finds work in Beijing to send home money to her family.
- She finds an internship for a leading international engineering company with offices in Beijing.
- US sanctions against China - can impact neighbouring Vietnam.
- Climate Change, extreme flooding in her home town; her parents have lost their harvest due to flood, and her parents can no longer financially support their agricultural business (due to age, and loss of income due to climate change).
- Her parents move to Hanoi to be close to one of An's siblings who live there, it was an emotional upheaval for the family to lose the farm.
- There is a lack of support from the government in terms of land acquisition post floods, An's family sell at a low price as floods in the area are now frequent and it is no longer arable land.
- An returns to Hanoi to help her family.
- She applies for funding from the Asian Development Bank / Finance inititiatives to support start ups combatting climate change and she is successful! She starts her own environmental engineering firm with the seed money.
- She is her sibling support her parents financially.
2040-2050
- An marries, and has two kids.
- Her firm is growing, and she is able to implement a lot of projects in rural areas in Vietnam. Eg. Tech based solutions to flooding
- She is tenured at a University - lecturing online at a University overseas --> lectures on her unique expertise in application experience.
- Climate change is a frequent issue; there are frequent flooding events, heat waves, monsoon seasons. The city is well prepared with mitigation technologies, however rural areas are heavily impacted.
- Mass migration from rural areas most impacted by climate change to cities, leading to stress on infrastructure in the cities.
- An realises that technology can help things stabalise, but the problems facing Vietnam are international. And she decides to take on advocacy to promote the importance of globalising climate change efforts, and sharing technologies and best practice.
Diversification Education
- She migrated first from rural Vietnam to the city
- To Beijing
- She was then able to lecture online at multiple universities overseas
- A positive driver for An's migration
Climate Change
- Career and education, she has been shaped by her own persona experience of climate change.
- She's been the beneficiary of funding programmes to do with climate change
- However, personally its been traumatic losing the family land, and her parents were forced to migrate to Hanoi due to climate change.
- Daily life is harder due to climate change, and global co-operation is still needed.
- She now implements technology based solutions in areas worst hit.
Rise of E7
- She has benefited from the neighbouring relationship with China, was able to get funding and study her PhD there - Potentially an East -Southern agreement?
- Internship was allowed due to regional reciprocal agreement
- Asian Development bank funding for her firm
- Knowledge exchange in place in the region, a regional response to climate change.
__________________________
Session 1:
- Diversification of Education
Possible positive outcomes:
- Accessibility to higher education from her home town (due to technology access)
- That she doesn't have to migrate to have access to quality higher education with low cost (gives the choice to stay or migrate for education)
- New opportunities for work and migration due to her education
- Study a variety of subjects much easier
- Better able to get jobs in her area - provides her the ability to be a teacher in the nearest city. Places her as a good candidate for local jobs
- Reduction of inequalities in her home country due to education access
- Able to uplift her parents and more immediate family members (new farming techniques?)
- Higher paid job- able to support family financially
Possible negative outcomes:
- Local education opportunities mean she might not migrate for education, when previously that was a large possibility
- Unequal access to education depending on her access to technology / resources
- Easier access to education has 'devalued' educational qualifications - inflation of qualifications
- A disinterest in Agriculture - preference for new work
2. Climate Change
Possible positive outcomes:
- Potential technological innovations in agriculture
- Some stipend or funding from the government to relocate to deal with the situation / given arable land by the government?
Possible negative outcomes:
- Being forced to migrate due to harsh conditions and un-arable land for farming
- Losing family's source of income
- Pressure of a mass movement of internal migration from other regions of Vietnam - negative impacts on the nation. Limited choice of destination in a climate emergency, especially when everyone else is moving as well.
- Symbolic, cultural loss for An - the emotional impact of climate change and losing her family's home / ancestral roots.
- restructuring of family - needing to find new jobs to make up for loss of income, perhaps family has to migrate to different cities for work.
- Public service under stress: Access to health, education, civil infrastructure will be limited due to the move / climate change
- Vietnam has limited resources to mitigate climate change impacts; migration pressure on neighbouring countries as well.
3. Influence of East and South
Possible positive outcomes:
- can migrate to neighbouring countries in the region
- Regional migration cooperation - ability to travel and work in neighbouring countries (ASEAN Block)
- A demand for migrant workers in Asia
- More opportunities for work (future pandemics, home schooling?)
- More opportunities in the south east
- Cultural neighbours - might have a positive impact on her migration journey
- If Asia becomes a world leader, we might see more West --> East migration journeys, equalising global migration
- Asian Development Bank / neighbouring countries assistance to Vietnam - might improve An Ca's rural area.
- Region led approach to mitigating climate change
Possible negative outcomes:
- Host countries can receive a sudden influx of people, systems can be strained and xenophobia can increase in the country.
- Brain Drain - An could leave Vietnam for the region
- Maybe no paths to citizenship, access to public infrastructure
- Permanent migration? Unable to return to Vietnam due to job ties
Final:
- An Ca will be impacted by these Drivers, however Diversification of Education might provide her the opportunity to stay in Vietnam. She has many migration options