Context 2050

In 2050, Maria is in her sixties and she is having two residencies, one in the city and another one in her hometown in the countryside. She managed the transition from the informal to the formal care sector and opened her own care company for care workers in private homes. She managed to build her own company because she became politically active and part of an NGO which is advocating for the rights of informal care workers. Due to the rising solidarity with care workers and networks of care workers on a global level, this NGO has successfully managed to advocate for state funds for the help of informal care workers. Thereby, Mexico has introduced a specific tax on wealth (1%) to support care workers in terms of education. Before joining this NGO, Maria received help herself for her education. Thanks to this support,  she was able to join free online education. She has two children and three grand children. Thanks to a good online education system, her children were able to earn a university degree via digital courses. Thus, one child is a doctor working in her company, the other one is working as a lawyer. Due to her several activities she got to know many people, some of them became very good friends. She also has found a partner who is living in the countryside and who she is spending a lot of her free time with.

Positive scenario

2020-2030

• New education programs that are digital and that Maria could participate in these programs, offered by established universities and in cooperation with labor networks and NGOs.
• The program is connected to feminist movement/policy in Mexico. Feministic discussions and positions are discussed in schools and forums around the country and that there is a dialogue about feminism and how we can achieve equality. Feminist ideas are not directly rejected but are more widely accepted. This influences law-making in the informal care work sector.
• State institutions still play an important role, but there's a changing discourse and more attention for the needs of care workers.
• International labor unions promote specific rights of care workers.
• But Maria's private situation is not always easy and she doesn't pass the exam in the first attempt. But she receives support from the NGO to care for her child while she's studying. She manages to pass the exam in the second attempt.

2030-2040

• Maria starts to work as an official, registered care worker and works in a hospital in Mexico City. She is a certified nurse. After some years, she is in a management position at the hospital.
• Political stability in Mexico has increased due to a peace agreement between the guerilla groups and the democratically elected government. As a consequence, also security has increased nationwide. In this regard, the transportation infrastructure could be improved and a good train infrastructure has emerged. There has been built a highspeed train infrastructure between the big city and Maria's hometown in the countryside.
• Security for females like Maria is increasing in the city thanks to global movements like ni unos más

2040-2050

• Since the character of care work is changing (e.g. more robotics is used in care work) and hence elderly people are able to live in their own homes longer with the help of new digital tools, Maria faces the threat of losing her job at the hospital. There is not as much personnel needed anymore as was the decade before. Therefore, she decides to open her own company which provides care for elderly people in their private homes, as especially elder people are often lonely and longing for human contacts.
• International workers are now better connected and could work towards law changes in the direction of care workers support but also for female entrepreneurs, which allows Maria to start her own business. Women are free to do what they like.
• There is a revolutionary attitude in the society, with the feeling of hope and opportunities, which Maria can also experience and convey to her grand children.
• There are more digital tools and this leads to the desire especially among elderly people to establish human contacts and be treated by emphatic people like Maria.

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1. Which 2-3 Megatrends/Drivers have you chosen to influence the decisions/choices of your persona until 2050? 

• A. Increasing influence of new governing systems (states are much weaker than in 2021 - other actors like multinational companies, smaller interest groups are able to shape people's lives to a greater extent)
• B. Accelerating technological change & hyperconnectivity
• C. Changing security paradigm

2. What are the possible positive and negative impacts? 

Positive

• A. The emergence of new international interest groups contributes to better representation of Maria and other care workers interests with low or no formal education (international NGO put their focus on human rights in Latin America); multinational enterprises (MNEs) can no longer afford to depress wages but need to introduce minimum wages all over Mexico; new governing systems in general lead to a better distribution of power and force the national government to adjust to international standards
• B. Better access to / opportunities for further (online) education (informalisation of education); new digital tools facilitating care work (given that demographics increase and change the amount of care required)
• C. Political stability in Mexico has increased (e.g. guerilla groups cooperate with a democratic government); security in big cities has increased

Negative

• A. MNEs further depress wages by attracting relatively well educated personnel from neighboring countries with lower wage levels; national wage protection schemes fall under the pressure of MNEs; new governing systems in general lead to increasing political instability
• B. Robotization erases thousands of low-skilled jobs in the care industry
• C. Big cities are less secure than today; easier access to weapons, rising political instability, right-wing populism and extremism in general contribute to a polarized community marked by fear

3. Will they motivate your persona to move multiple times or maybe not at all?

• Movement is likely, perhaps also multiple times

Mural Link: https://app.mural.co/t/futureofhumanmobility6580/m/futureofhumanmobilit…;