Vytautas lives in two worlds at the same time: 

As he wakes up, he directly puts on his Google glasses and connects to the world. 

This morning, he did not take the time to open his window and to look at the ocean. 

He vaguely hears his second son crying in his room but gets quickly distracted by a new notification on his phone telling him that a new technology - Player 1 - is being launched by Facebook. 

Luckily he does not need to pay too much attention since his house is full of sensors that understand his son's crying better than himself and immediately sing him a lullaby. 

His wife is already working since a few hours on a new social app in collaboration with a Chinese startup. 

It’s an important day for him, he will pitch his new virtual travel concept to Amazon: 

A 4D helmet that would allow people to visit the pyramids of Egypt and feel the sand blowing in their face. They could enter the pyramid to discover all its secrets. 

In order to protect the sights and stop polluting the area, authorities have limited access to the pyramids 10 years ago. Vytautas programme is a direct reaction to that and makes the pyramids available for a broad audience again. 

While following the news, he got dressed with his best suits. So whenever his boss calls him, he could start his hologram projection and attend the online meeting. 

After a successful meeting, he's brought back to his current life by his wife suggesting to go for a walk along the ocean. 

While admiring the ocean, he cannot help but notice the degradation of the forest in Valdivia. It has been raining less and less over the past years and the vegetation is suffering. 

So are the people. Fishermen for example struggle to find enough fish to sell and bring money to the table. 

Although he feels sad for them, he can’t really relate to them as he earns enough money to buy everything he wants for him and his family and with the email he just received from his boss, this issue got even further away from him. His concept just got approved.  

Soon his pay check is going to come in. But not into a traditional account but on his Amazon e-wallet. 

His special status of "high tech expert developer" gives him a complete "laissé passé" onevery day life issues such a taxes. His status gives him a sort immunity, such that he can be a citizen of the world and not a specific country anymore. 

Since the country of his residence is not benefitting from him living/working there, he wants to give back by establishing a charitable foundation fighting against climate change. 

After all, his kids will outlive him and his wife. Investing in their futures is also his role. 

This left him thinking about his kids and how the future will look like for them. Despite another stressful day, the sound of the ocean helps him finish his day on a relaxing note. 

"Backcasting"

Relevant drivers: climate change, increasing significance of migration, private sector with policy impact

Decade 2020-30

What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?

Because of climate change-induced measures, travelling is becoming more and more expensive (fuel price is rising because the oil stocks are decreasing + taxation on flights decided by governments to meet the Paris Climate agreement’s goals) and for rich people, which is frustrating for him. He starts thinking of alternative solutions that would allow people to keep discovering the world while staying home. 

As compensation for the long months stuck in one place,  travel and migration increases tremendously after the pandemic is over. People from the North value good weather more and therefore migrate towards the South (while having remote jobs) and inhabitants of the global South try to escape their damaged economies towards the North. 

At the same time, big tech companies also try to play the "good guys" and sensibilise about climate change by "shaming" travellers to discourage people of flying excessively - a tracker would say how many miles people have flew over the year and how much the polluted. In the aftermath of the Corona crisis extensive tracking has become the norm and has been given into the hands of a few companies (instead of the state). 

Decade 2030-40

What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?

At the same time climate change is triggering huge migration flows to the global North as people try to escape droughts and natural catastrophes. Even though well situated in one of the transitory countries (like Italy) Vytautas sees this development and questions his lifestyle and privilege. 

All the GAFAs launched their own crypto-currency,  taking over some regular government’s duties. As Vytauta works for Amazon, now all of his assets are virtual and he doesn’t need cash or a regular bank account anymore. 

Decade 2040-50

What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?

Climate change has significantly reduced food production but technology is substituting vegetables and live stock with lab-grown food. This is only possible with the latest technology which is – of course – owned by Big Tech. They control food distribution worldwide. Even though his country of residence is heavily affected by changes in climate and the "normal" population is suffering, Vytautas is not affected as he is part of the dominant structures.

Regular governments are loosing power. Now Big Techs plays the role of Governments. They own and provide virtual money, citizenship and they dominate the worldwide trading. 

Eco-avition, changing values towards migrants & travelling, digital citzienship, big tech reshaping society 

Climate Change:

Negative:

• travel restrictions due to the development
• plane tickets are more difficult to obtain
• regions that are not accesible for travellers
• protectionist countries: don't want to take in migrants due to climate change

Positive:

• he might not want to move, since he is becoming more conscious --> ECO-AVIATION could be a solution (bridging technology and travelling and assuring his lifestyle; might actually increase his desire to migrate (serial migrant))

Increasing significance of migration:

Negative:

• challenge of employment due to increasing workforce and being "stuck" in new country without emplyoment
• protectionist countries: don't want to take in migrants
• if travelling/migrating becomes not accepatable his lifestyle might change

Positive: 

• not affected by protectionist measures due to his location independence
• online visas / E-ID / online citizenship?  <-- due to technological innovation concepts like the mentioned ones; who is actuially delivering these citizenships? --> private sector?

Private sector with policy-impact:

Negative:

• due to developments like "facebook creating its own money (Libra)" he could be totally "out" of state-reach, independent from traditional infrastructures --> e.g. taxes could become an issue

Positive: 

• due to developments like "facebook creating its own money (Libra)" he could be totally "out" of state-reach, independent from traditional infrastructures

(book recommendation by Lionel: Player 1)