Szenario Workshop output:
Vytautas life:
A) Vytautas is sitting in front of a monitor that can be operated with only his eyes and he is doing this in a coworking space. Central America, sub sahara africa. Post-Life crisis -> after a phase of reorientation due to problems of job market but also because he was bored by his field. Looking for roots, finally.
In his life he is always following where the innovation is happening.
B) Vytautat is a freelancer and there is a lot of competition in the field of computer science now and thus he needs to constantly re-educate himself. He is jobsless. He is a specialist. Nowadays being an expert/specialist does not mean that you have job, you need to be a generalist in order to sustain your life. -> world of work is even more specialized, if you lose your specialist job it is difficult to get re-employed.
Vytautas is constantly adding to his education within his specialisation.
C) Vytautas has completly shifted course, he hates technologies. He is on his second marriage, he has moved somewhere where is low cost living, he moved to a "new hub" for example Ukraine (could also be a city that is a new hub). He has set up a coffee brewery (from his own coffee plantage that he bought when he moved to Thailand after his master), but also lots of side jobs (still consult). He is a project person, he likes to have different projects running at the same time. Maybe a conflict is happening between his passportholding country and his country of residence.
The world:
- Rise of tech compnaies monopowers has stopped after a long phase of massive digital development (tech companies have now been regulated.). There is even more trouble in the global south now. More poverty. More climate disaster.
-Effects of climate change has accelerated. Even if Vytautas is now living in a climate neutral world.
-There is revolution/social movement happening: Because poverty has accelerated even more. -> Migration increases even more. Revolution of the poor around the globe especially in the global south, with the help of everyone being connected online.
-Chinease System has power of migigate problems quicker than the US or Western Democracies. Therefore US has to align stronger to Chinese system.
-China and US had to cooperate and work together to fight the social movement of the poor. This global 'Arab Spring' has forced those two power to work together.
-This revolution is a window of opportunty for a new international system of governance that represents an even deeper division between the global south and the global north. Charta of the UN has changed and thus the role of the UN.
Biography 2021-2030: What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?
-He is constantly looking for new opportunities. Constantly aqcuring new skills. Moving around a lot in this decade. Meets his first wife in Thailand with whom he move around a lot. First works for a big digital e-commerece company that has recently set up in Indonesia. And he does the back-end work for them remote from a nice island. He works for them for 2 years and then changes for a more established company -> works for Amazon Singapor. He does that job for 10 years at which point Amazon is merged with Alibaba which is basically US and China joining forces. Its an expression of the two systems working together.
Biography 2030-2040: What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?
He is now in his late thirties. His marriage broke down. He wants to get away from the ambitous southeasan atmosphere. His Lithuanian uni sweetheart gets back in touch and he moves back to Lithuania. Starts a government job for more stability. Asked by the government to set-up something in e commerce. At the side he sets up an own business with a branch in South America and moves there. In setting up the latin america outlet of his company he lost a lot of money -> because of the global revolution, because of division between Global South and North, geopolitically very uncertain and dangerous time.
Biography 2040-2050: What is the development of the drivers at this point and what is the effect on the migration pattern for the persona?
Since there is a global revolution E comerce is not a ideal profession to be in. He is forced to move back to Lithuenia due to money and passport reasons. Additionally his family is in desperate need due to the crisis. Education of his children? Responsibilities with parents?
To think about:
-More on impact of changing nature of work?
-More on resbonsibilities with children and parents?
Drivers Workshop output:
What are the main drivers chosen?
- Expanding influence of East and South
- Changing nature of work
What are the possible positive and negative impacts?
Positive:
- Technological advances and job opportunities in east and south
- Large market for the technical knowledge of Vytautas
- Many jobs may not need manual labor, digitalization of work
- vytautas has access to human enhancement technologies that others don't
- education systems will not change much in 30 years, but faster in the north
- people will value skills more than book knowhow
Negative:
- Increased labour force competition from East and South
- regionalization, regions will protect their resources / markets (after long phase of integration)
- population growth in global south --> more competition. on the other hand he might have special skills that are sought after in these regions
- political instability in the west (collapse of EU?)
How will they affect Vytautas' mobility choices?
- Vytautas will move frequently, depending on where it's best at the time
- he will avoid places with high competition
- he will also change jobs frequently (gig economy)
- he would move for jobs just because "job is a lifestyle"
- changing nature of work will be influenced by eastern / southern values